The 2 Point Conversion

The Complete NFL Scoop

Split Decision: Joseph Addai vs. Felix Jones


I do much of my fantasy football through Yahoo, and really like their idea of “Spin Doctors” that they do with players who have fairly equal value in the eyes of the public. Two writers, each defending a different player, make their case for their guy and you are left to decide in the end. While I almost always have my mind made up going in, I always learn some new nuggets of information which can lead me to tweak my rankings on occasion. So, I will attempt a one man, 2 Point Conversion version of “Spin Doctors”, entitled “Split Decision.”

I decided on Addai and Jones because they are numbers 49 and 50 in ADP according to http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php with Addai holding the slightest edge. Deciding between the pair also gave me pause, as I believe both are low-end #2 RBs. Both have considerable upsides, but also legitimate concerns. Addai got 74% of the carries between he and fellow rookie Donald Brown. Since Addai averaged only 3.8 yards per carry, the Colts will probably allow Donald Brown to eat into his workload. However, even if the Colts take 3 touches away from Addai every game, he will still average over 14 a game. I predict Addai will get between 230 and 250 touches next season, after he had 270 in 2009. Still, he is the goal line back in one of the most efficient offenses in the league, and there is no reason to believe he will score less than 8-10 touchdowns along with his healthy load of touches, which will come consistently. So, Addai’s floor is relatively high due to the ample scoring opportunities, but he may barely scratch the 1,000 yard mark in yards from scrimmage. With 2009 first round pick Donald Brown in the backfield, Addai will no longer have 230 or 250 carry seasons, and he is simply not explosive enough to be a thousand yard rusher on the amount of carries he will get. He is worth a fifth round pick in your league and should be steady, but unspectacular.

Prediction: 740 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs, 390 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs. 173 FPTS (10.8 per game).

Felix Jones showed everybody what he could do on 9 touches a game. He averaged under 6 yards per carry and his workload figures to dramatically increase this season. Dallas will have about 450 carries to divy up between Jones, Barber, and Tashard Choice. I expect Choice to receive about 100 of them, but he has no chance of surpassing everybody to the top of the depth chart barring injuries. Marion Barber should only receive about half of what he did last year (214), leaving Jones with more than 200 carries. However, nobody really knows how those carries will be split up. Felix Jones is a good bet to rack up 1,400 total yards and 6-8 touchdowns, but the bust possibility is real, unlike with Addai. Also, unlike Addai, Felix Jones will give up goal line work to Marion the Barbarian, a premier goal line back and closer. Still, he is explosive enough to do well on limited carries, though he will not be consistent enough to produce as a RB2 in that situation. However, I believe he will get at least 175 carries, meaning at least 210 or so touches, which he should turn in to a solid season.

Barber’s carries can also be lower than what people expect as well. After all, Barber had by far the lowest yards per carry out of the three backs and has endured a lot of punishment for a 27-year-old runner. If this is the case, Felix Jones would be closer to 300 touches, which would go for in the neighborhood of 1,700 total yards and up to 9 or 10 touchdowns. Jones becomes a true #1 RB in this case and cements himself as one of the premier backs in the league. Only time will tell, I suppose.

Prediction: 980 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs, 350 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs. 175 FPTS (10.9 per game)

Decision: Felix Jones. This is a close call, and if you need to draft one as your starter, Addai is probably the safer pick due to his goal line duties. However, if you are looking for a third RB or simply one with a ton of potential, Felix Jones may reward you with a championship.

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July 10, 2010 - Posted by | Fantasy Football

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