The 2 Point Conversion

The Complete NFL Scoop

Squeezing Value Out of Your Fantasy Football Draft


Fantasy football drafts have been tightening up, and consequently, you will find that your favorite sleeper pick is now being taken in the ninth round instead of the thirteenth. Whatever the reason, people are drafting better, leaving fewer studs to slip through the cracks of rounds one and two and snatching up the best kept secrets at more reasonable selections. Don’t be discouraged, however, for there are still many bargains to be had.

The amount of elite quarterbacks are dramatically changing the first three to five rounds of all fantasy mock drafts, and you need to play this new phenomenon to your advantage if you wish to conduct a successful draft. When the top flight passers go early, which means 7 in the top 40 selections, there is very desirable talent on the board at other positions when you are on the clock in the fourth, fifth, or even sixth rounds. Jonathan Stewart, well worth a third round selection, is now sliding to the bottom of the fourth round sometimes. Knowing that a solid #2 runner will be on the board in the fourth or fifth rounds allows you to draft a second receiver or a top tier tight end much earlier than you would have normally.

When the quarterbacks don’t fly off the board, however, one lucky owner can land himself Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, or Matt Schaub in the 40-50 overall range. So, don’t get mesmerized by Brees’ magical ‘09 numbers and pick him fifth overall. Instead, wait until the third round to consider your options at quarterback. At that point, if you aren’t convinced a quarterback you love will fall to you in round 4, take one. If three or four are still on the board though, take a runner or receiver you wouldn’t have gotten elsewhere. Personally, I don’t see a huge difference between Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, and Philip Rivers. While the former two will go in the top 15, I would much rather spend my first round pick on a great RB and wait to select Rivers than have Drew Brees in hand and pick between my #12 WR and #14 RB at 43 overall. In fact, I have tested the QB very early strategy just to make sure I didn’t want to go in that direction. I was very disappointed with the results. The two mock drafts I have posted below contrast the QB-WR-RB-WR and RB-WR-WR-QB strategies.

slot 10/12
A. Rodgers, QB, GB
M. Austin, WR, DAL
J. Stewart, RB, CAR
A. Boldin, WR, BAL
B. Jacobs, RB, NYG
P. Garcon, WR, IND
J. Harrison, RB, CLE
M. Floyd, WR, SD
Cowboys DEF
H. Miller, TE, PIT
J. Forsett, RB, SEA
C. Schilens, WR, OAK
M. Bush, RB, OAK
A. Smith, QB, SF
S. Graham, K, BAL

 

slot 11/12
S. Greene, RB, NYJ
M. Austin, WR, DAL
A. Boldin, WR, BAL
M. Schaub, QB, HOU
B. Jacobs, RB, NYG
H. Ward, WR, PIT
F. Jones, RB, DAL
K. Winslow, TE, TB
M. Floyd, WR, SD
Cowboys DEF
M. Bush, RB, OAK
C. Schilens, WR, OAK
J. Carlson, TE, SEA
A. Smith, QB, SF
D. Carpenter, K, MIA

As you can see, the starters in each draft are nearly identical. I would rather have Matt Schaub and Shonn Greene than Aaron Rodgers and Jonathan Stewart, is what I’m really trying to say. Where you take your signal caller really is what holds the key to how much value you can get in your fantasy draft. If you really believe in Joe Flacco or Brett Favre, take one of them in the eighth round and you should be rock solid at the other positions. I, however, see a big drop-off after the big 7 (Rodgers, Brees, Schaub, P. Manning, Rivers, Brady, Romo) and am willing to take a small hit in my RB stable to ensure I get one of the seven. So long and until next time, fantasy football managers.

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July 13, 2010 - Posted by | Fantasy Football

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