The 2 Point Conversion

The Complete NFL Scoop

Fantasy Football RB Rankings

1. Adrian Peterson, MIN. With Chester Taylor gone, Peterson will get even more carries and goal line touches, which makes his 1,800 scrimmage yards, 18 TDs seem to be the minimum for him if he can avoid injury. He is worth the #1 overall pick.

2. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX. With two rookies starting at OT, MJD managed 1,800 scrimmage yards, 16 TDs in 2009. It’s a safe bet he will post similar numbers again in 2010 with a better OL, no skilled backup, and a shaky passing game. Take him #2 overall.

3. Frank Gore, SF. Despite missing three games last year, Gore had over 1,500 scrimmage yards and 13 TDs. With two first round picks on offensive linemen and possibly the easiest schedule in football, Gore is a candidate for over 2,000 total yards and 15 scores. He is safe to draft in the top 5 overall.

4. Ray Rice, BAL. Rice had over 2,000 total yards last season, and while he may get less receptions with Anquan Boldin in the fold, he should find the endzone more as the true feature back. He is worth a top 5 pick.

5. Chris Johnson, TEN. Johnson is in a perfect situation, no doubt, but he has had over 700 touches in the past two seasons. At 200 pounds, can he stay healthy and avoid the fate that has haunted almost all previous league leaders in carries? Throw in a tough schedule and Johnson is not worth the top pick overall, though he is still an elite back worth a top 5 selection.

6. Michael Turner, ATL. While Turner will be a TD machine, he doesn’t offer the receiving production or versatility of the clear-cut top 5 backs. He is still a RB1 worth a pick toward the middle or end of round 1.

7. Shonn Greene, NYJ. Greene is the unquestioned featured back on a team that has run more than anybody in the last five seasons. Don’t be afraid to take him late in the first round.

8. Steven Jackson, STL. Despite missing 10 starts in the last 4 years, he has always topped 1,400 total yards. If he can stay healthy for a change, he has big time potential due to his talent and his team’s reliance on him. He is still worthy of a late first or early second round pick.

9. DeAngelo Williams, CAR. Despite being in a nearly 50-50 timeshare, Williams will get 300 touches if he stays healthy. He looks to be a safe bet for about 1,600 total yards and 8 TDs. He’s a low-end RB1 worth an early pick in round 2.

10. Pierre Thomas, NO. Despite receiving fewer than 200 touches last year, Thomas had about 1,100 total yards and 8 TDs. Expect him to absorb most of Mike Bell’s 174 carries from a year ago and benefit from a very favorable schedule. 1,500 scrimmage yards and 10 TDs seem reasonable for the Illinois product. He’s being greatly undervalued and you may be able to steal him in the third round.

11. Ryan Grant, GB. In an unchanged situation, look for Grant to post very similar numbers to last year’s 1,450 total yards and 11 TDs. He’s a low-end RB1 worth a mid-to-late second round pick.

12. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT. Mendenhall will have a lower average rush due to Roethlisberger’s suspension and will receive very sparse red zone opportunities. Still, he should garner at least 300 touches, but probably will be slightly overvalued in your league. I would take him between 15th and 25th overall.

13. Ryan Mathews, SD. Everything seems to line up nicely for Mathews in his rookie year, but you just never know with rookies. I predict a big year, but I’d rather go with a safer back as my RB1. Nevertheless, Mathews is well worth a mid/late second rounder although he will often be overdrafted.

14. Jonathan Stewart, CAR. Though Stewart benefitted from DeAngelo Williams’ injury, he should still receive at least 200 touches, which he will take for at least 1,000 scrimmage yards and 8-10 scores. I expect slightly better from him, and he is worth a third round pick as a solid RB2. He is being severely undervalued in many leagues.

15. Cedric Benson, CIN. A feature back on a run-first team is worth a third round selection. That is, unless he gets suspended for his recent arrest. Monitor his situation before you spend a high pick on him.

16. Ronnie Brown, MIA. When healthy, Brown always seems to be on all-pro pace. Last season, he was on pace for 1,400 total yards and 15 scores. He has enormous potential if he can finally get it together, and I love him as an RB2 this season. He is on underrated watch and should be available to you in round 4.

17. Jamaal Charles, KC. Charles is certainly a supremely talented back and should rack up around 1,500 scrimmage yards. His offense makes me nervous however, and he won’t get red zone touches. Don’t be surprised if Charles mildly disappoints this season, and he is usually overvalued. Take him early in round 4 if by some miracle he’s still around.

18. Felix Jones, DAL. The Cowboys backfield picture is very similar to Baltimore’s from a year ago, and Jones could be this year’s Ray Rice. He has 2,000 total yard potential, but nobody really knows who will get the carries. I like Jones as an overlooked RB2 worth a fourth round pick.

19. Knowshon Moreno, DEN. Sources close to the Broncos are convinced Moreno will have a breakout season. He will play a bigger role in the passing game and should improve his yards per carry. Expect about 1,400 total yards and around 8 scores for the run-of-the-mill RB2 worth a hard look in round 4.

20. Joseph Addai, IND. Not particularly explosive or all that great, Addai is a much better fantasy player than real player. He hit paydirt 13 times last season, and that’s a number that can be repeated despite the presence of last year’s first round pick Donald Brown. Expect about 1,100 total yards with 10-12 scores. Take him in round 4 or 5 as a low-end RB2.

21. Brandon Jacobs, NYG. It’s tough to believe Jacobs had a career high in rushing attempts last season since he ran for more than 200 fewer yards than in ‘08. Expect him to get about 250 touches this year too, where he has a ton of TD potential to go along with around 1,000 rushing yards. He is being overlooked this season, and is a great pickup in round 5.

22. Chris “Beanie” Wells, ARZ. Wells may not be in line for the bump in rushes everyone is seemingly predicting. Tim Hightower is a much better receiver and pass protector, which could keep Wells off the field more than his fantasy owners foresee. He’s still a fifth round pick who should have around 1,100 total yards and 6-8 TDs.

23. Matt Forte, CHI. Forte had 1,400 scrimmage yards last season, believe it or not. The Martz offense should only increase his receiving production and TD opportunities. Chester Taylor could take red zone opportunities and receptions away though, which makes Forte tough to trust as an RB2. Take him in round 5.

24. LeSean “Shady” McCoy. McCoy has worked very hard this offseason, but Mike Bell and Leonard Weaver will take more carries away from McCoy than anticipated. Still, McCoy should rack up 1,200 scrimmage yards but only around 6 or 7 scores. He’s a low-end RB2 that will be taken higher than he belongs.

25. Justin Forsett, SEA. Forsett appears to be Pete Carroll’s favorite player and could take on a huge role on a Seahawks team that will run the ball more. He has an easy schedule and the best rookie offensive lineman. He could have 300 touches for over 1,500 total yards and 6-8 TDs. Still, the role is no guarantee but regard Forsett as a big sleeper that you can net in round 7 or 8 and use as a great RB3.

26. Jahvid Best, DET. I like Best to post similar numbers to Kevin Smith in his rookie season, where he had almost 1,300 total yards and found the endzone 8 times. Best does have a long injury history and a returning Kevin Smith to worry about, however. He is overvalued and should be taken in round 6.

27. Jerome Harrison, CLE. It took a while for Harrison to get going, but he proved he could be effective when he rushed for 605 yards and 5 scores in the last 5 contests of 2009. Watch out for Montario Hardesty, who could steal a ton of carries, but Harrison has very high upside as a RB3.

28. Carnell “Cadillac” Williams, TB. With the maturation and improvement of the Bucs offense, Cadillac should at least match his 1,040 scrimmage yards and 7 TDs from a year ago. Health is a huge risk however. He should be selected right around round 8.

29. Ricky Williams, MIA. Despite playing second fiddle to Ronnie Brown, Williams should see 12-15 touches a game and plenty of scoring opportunities. He is an ideal handcuff, but also worth taking on his own in round 8 due to Brown’s scary injury history.

30. Michael Bush, OAK. The release of Justin Fargas will allow Michael Bush to finally receive a starter’s workload. He is getting more first team reps than Darren McFadden, and will receive more than 200 touches. Expect at least 1,000 total yards and 5-6 TDs and know that he is worth a ninth rounder.

31. Reggie Bush, NO. The dynamic playmaker will only have to share carries with one other back instead of two in 2010. This means 4-5 more touches a game. Bush is also pretty much a lock for around 8 scores due to his explosiveness, situation, and versatility. He is a ninth round pick that could pay huge dividends.

32. Clinton Portis, WSH. It appears as if Portis and Larry Johnson will be the primary ball carriers for a team with an improved offensive line and a more respectable passing game, not to mention Mike Shanahan. He looks to be a 250 touch guy, or at least close to that. That’s enough to be drafted in round 10.

33. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG. Both Bradshaw and Jacobs are coming off surgery, but the former may be the only one that recovers well enough to be a starter. There’s too much potential for Bradshaw to be on the board past round 11 or 10 despite the considerable risk he presents. Low-end RB3.

34. Darren Sproles, SD. The lightning bolt of a running back, pun intended, may wind up getting quite a few more touches than expected due to the injury history of Mathews and unpredictability of rookies in general. Regardless, Sproles will post at least 900 scrimmage yards and 6 scores. He’s an RB4 with upside.

35. Marion Barber, DAL. Probably will be useless for fantasy purposes, but double digit TD potential is still too hard to ignore if he’s still on the board in the 11th or 12th.

36. C.J. Spiller, BUF. Supremely talented, but he’s in a mess of a backfield behind a mess of an offensive line. He has 1,300 scrimmage yard potential, but TDs will be tough to come by in Orchard Park.

37. Laurence Maroney, NE. Nobody has a clue who will get the ball in New England, but Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris, and Fred Taylor are so old they may get stuck with very reduced roles. A lot of TDs on the table make Maroney an attractive late round flier.

38. Larry Johnson, WSH. Johnson probably has the freshest legs on the Redskins despite being 30 years old. Who knows, he may emerge as a feature back and rack up over 1,000 rushing yards.

39. Tim Hightower, ARZ. Due to his great pass protection skills and receiving abilities, Hightower will be left in the game more than expected. His ‘09 numbers should be replicated, just without the TDs.

40. Ben Tate, HOU. I’m not sold on Tate at all. Gary Kubiak has a very quick hook and a very talented back in Steve Slaton. The potential is there, but he cannot be relied on as an RB3.

41. Montario Hardesty, CLE. Reports out of Cleveland are that Hardesty looks impressive. However, Mangini may be inclined to start Jerome Harrison instead, who saved his coaches’ jobs with his late season heroics.

42. Kevin Smith, DET. If Smith beats out Jahvid Best for the #1 RB job, he may be pretty productive despite his injury. Take a chance on him very late.

43. Fred Jackson, BUF. Even though Buffalo drafted C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson was extremely productive considering his circumstances. Spiller will spend a lot of time as a slot receiver as well to free up Jackson for more touches.

44. Bernard Scott, CIN. If Cedric Benson gets suspended, Bernard Scott will start in his place and get a piece of the pie in Cinci. If he impresses, he may be a permanent fixture in the backfield rotation.

45. Chester Taylor, CHI. Though it seems doubtful Chester Taylor will start in place of Forte, the former Viking will get his touches, even some at the goal line. He will be moderately overdrafted, however.

46. Glen Coffee, SF. Frank Gore is injury prone and the 49ers have a ridiculously easy schedule. Those two factors make Coffee a potential late round gem whether or not you own Frank Fore.

47. Steve Slaton, HOU. Nobody knows who will run the ball in Houston or for how long. What we do know is what Slaton is capable of (1,282 rush yards in ‘08) when he’s at the top of his game.

48. Donald Brown, IND. Addai appears to still be the lead man, but GM Bill Polian is no fool and doesn’t spend first round picks on players who won’t play a big role on the team.

49. Toby Gerhart, MIN. With Chester Taylor bolting to the rival Bears, Toby Gerhart is Adrian Peterson’s primary backup. That could be an important role given AP’s injury history and fumbling problems.

50. Tashard Choice, DAL. Dallas is another one of those teams with multiple or zero talented backs. We don’t know how the carries will be split up, but Choice may near 200 touches this season.


July 14, 2010 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Fantasy Football QB Rankings

1. Aaron Rodgers, GB. The perfect storm of talent, age, productivity, experience, and situation. There is no reason to believe Rodgers will not be a top performer again in 2010. He is worth a late first round pick.

2. Drew Brees, NO. Every bit as attractive as Aaron Rodgers excluding inferior left tackle and a schedule that may indicate more running than expected. Well worth a pick between 10-15 overall.

3. Matt Schaub, HOU. The cornerstone of this franchise that could repeat as league leader in passing yards. Injury concerns are legit with both he and star WR Andre Johnson, however, and TDs will be harder to come by in Houston than in New Orleans or Green Bay. Still, Schaub is deserving of an early third round pick.

4. Peyton Manning, IND. Consistency king has never thrown for under 3,700 yards AND 26 TDs in his entire career. Safe pick, but ceiling is lower than Rodgers’ or Brees’. Pick Peyton in round 3.

5. Tom Brady, NE. Welker injury and Moss aging are real issues, but are being blown way out of proportion by most. Steal Brady in your draft with a fourth round pick.

6. Tony Romo, DAL. Though the Cowboys will run the ball more than Romo owners would like, the star QB has a career average of over 8 yards per pass, an outstanding figure in today’s NFL. Draft Romo in round 4 and expect numbers close to his 4,500/26/9 stat line from a year ago.

7. Philip Rivers, SD. San Diego will remain a passing team despite Vincent Jackson’s suspension. Keep an eye on both he and Marcus McNeill however, as prolonged absences by either or both of them would hamper Rivers’ value. Nevertheless, the TD potential in San Diego makes Rivers a sure-fire fourth rounder.

8. Brett Favre, MIN. There is no doubt in my mind Favre will return for a 20th season. When he does, expect a decrease in passing yards and increase in INTs as his career high yards per pass and career low interception totals were more aberrations than anything else. Still, Favre is a serviceable but not ideal QB1 worth a sixth round selection.

9. Joe Flacco, BAL. With the additions of Anquan Boldin, Donte Stallworth, and Dennis Pitta, expect Baltimore to throw more and have more success while doing it. Flacco should push the 4,000 yard mark and throw for at least 25 scores. He is a QB1, albeit a low-end one compared to the passers ahead of him. He is usually undervalued and should be taken between rounds six and eight.

10. Eli Manning, NYG. In 2009, Eli bested his previous career high yards per pass by over a full yard. The trend isn’t all fluke, but the passing yards are slightly bloated. Don’t expect Eli to surpass 4,000 yards again, although he is a 30 TD candidate. He is a decent option at QB1 if you miss out on the elite passers worth taking in round 7 or 8.

11. Jay Cutler, CHI. Despite having a miserable real football season, Cutler posted 27 touchdowns and almost 3,700 passing yards. With a healthy Devin Aromashodu and running a Mike Martz offense, Cutler should improve his efficiency and cut down on his turnovers. This makes him a low-end QB1 with potential, and he is a great option around the eighth round.

12. Matt Ryan, ATL. With his team, himself included, hampered by injuries in ‘09, expect Ryan to return to his rookie form. Even if he does, he is not a very attractive fantasy player, as his chances of surpassing 3,500 yards seem rather slim. Try to avoid him as your only viable QB1 and take him in rounds 8 or 9.

13. Carson Palmer, CIN. Whether you point to the additions of Antonio Bryant, Jermaine Gresham, and Jordan Shipley or to the possible suspension of Cedric Benson, Carson Palmer is destined to improve upon his pedestrian 2009 campaign. He should throw for around 3,500 yards and 25 scores and should be a dependable but unspectacular QB best used as a reserve. Draft him no earlier than round 8.

14. Donovan McNabb, WSH. If Jason Campbell was able to throw for over 3,600 yards behind a terrible offensive line with iffy targets, Donovan McNabb should be able to surprise a ton of people this season. He isn’t safe to draft as a QB1 given his extensive injury history and age, but McNabb could throw for 4,000 yards and 25 TDs. Give him a hard look as a top notch QB2 beginning in the ninth round.

15. Kevin Kolb, PHI. In 14 games, Donovan McNabb threw for 3,600 yards and 22 TDs with the Eagles last season. Expect Kolb to post similar numbers, but with more INTs as part of the learning curve. Kolb has great potential in the Eagle attack, but is by no means a sure thing. He is being severely overvalued and is not worth more than a 10th rounder.

16. Alex Smith, SF. Extend Alex Smith’s 2009 totals over a full 16 game schedule and he throws for almost 3,800 yards and 28 TDs. Unbelievable. Throw in chemistry with a potential star in Michael Crabtree, a solid run game, and upgrades to the offensive line, and Alex Smith is a breakout candidate. Four years ago was the only time Smith was good enough to hold his job for a full 16 game slate and he failed to surpass even 3,000 yards though. Big risk, but bigger reward. I love his cake schedule and ceiling and trust him with my pick between rounds 11-13 as a nice QB2.

17. Chad Henne, MIA. In ‘09, Henne threw for close to 3,000 yards in only 13 starts. Throw in Brandon Marshall, a full offseason as the starter, and a probable decline in wildcat packages and Henne should easily surpass 3,500 yards in 2010. He is an average QB2 worth a look in round 12 or beyond.

18. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT. Roethlisberger would probably rank 7th or 8th on this list if not for his six game suspension. He threw for over 4,300 yards last season, and he should average 16 to 18 fantasy points per game in standard formats. That being said, he will likely be over drafted and I would let him be somebody else’s problem unless my started had a late bye week. Pick him up in round 12 if he’s there.

19. Vince Young, TEN. Young will throw for less than 200 yards a game and isn’t likely to throw for 20 or more scores. However, he is a good risk-reward pickup due to his running potential. Take a late round flier on him as a risky QB2.

20. Jason Campbell, OAK. Despite changing teams during the offseason, Campbell has similar talent around him and should be able to throw for close to 3,500 yards and 20 scores. He’s a low-end QB2.

21. Matthew Stafford, DET. I just don’t see what other people do in Stafford. His yards per pass should continue to hover around 6.0 and his offensive line hasn’t made significant strides. Expect nothing more than 3,500 yards and 20 TDs.

22. Matt Moore, CAR. I really like Matt Moore as a real football player, but Carolina runs too much for him to make a big fantasy impact. Still, he could throw for over 3,500 yards. Low-end QB2.

23. David Garrard, JAX. Garrard has surpassed 3,500 yards in each season he has started 16 games. He also has never thrown for more than 18 TDs, so you know what you’re getting. A decent QB 2 with no real upside.

24. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA. The Seahawks led the league in pass attempts last season, but Hasselbeck managed barely 3,000 yards through the air. Throw in the extensive injury history and Hasselbeck is barely worthy of a draft pick unless you are in a deep draft.

July 14, 2010 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment