The 2 Point Conversion

The Complete NFL Scoop

Fantasy Football QB Rankings

1. Aaron Rodgers, GB. The perfect storm of talent, age, productivity, experience, and situation. There is no reason to believe Rodgers will not be a top performer again in 2010. He is worth a late first round pick.

2. Drew Brees, NO. Every bit as attractive as Aaron Rodgers excluding inferior left tackle and a schedule that may indicate more running than expected. Well worth a pick between 10-15 overall.

3. Matt Schaub, HOU. The cornerstone of this franchise that could repeat as league leader in passing yards. Injury concerns are legit with both he and star WR Andre Johnson, however, and TDs will be harder to come by in Houston than in New Orleans or Green Bay. Still, Schaub is deserving of an early third round pick.

4. Peyton Manning, IND. Consistency king has never thrown for under 3,700 yards AND 26 TDs in his entire career. Safe pick, but ceiling is lower than Rodgers’ or Brees’. Pick Peyton in round 3.

5. Tom Brady, NE. Welker injury and Moss aging are real issues, but are being blown way out of proportion by most. Steal Brady in your draft with a fourth round pick.

6. Tony Romo, DAL. Though the Cowboys will run the ball more than Romo owners would like, the star QB has a career average of over 8 yards per pass, an outstanding figure in today’s NFL. Draft Romo in round 4 and expect numbers close to his 4,500/26/9 stat line from a year ago.

7. Philip Rivers, SD. San Diego will remain a passing team despite Vincent Jackson’s suspension. Keep an eye on both he and Marcus McNeill however, as prolonged absences by either or both of them would hamper Rivers’ value. Nevertheless, the TD potential in San Diego makes Rivers a sure-fire fourth rounder.

8. Brett Favre, MIN. There is no doubt in my mind Favre will return for a 20th season. When he does, expect a decrease in passing yards and increase in INTs as his career high yards per pass and career low interception totals were more aberrations than anything else. Still, Favre is a serviceable but not ideal QB1 worth a sixth round selection.

9. Joe Flacco, BAL. With the additions of Anquan Boldin, Donte Stallworth, and Dennis Pitta, expect Baltimore to throw more and have more success while doing it. Flacco should push the 4,000 yard mark and throw for at least 25 scores. He is a QB1, albeit a low-end one compared to the passers ahead of him. He is usually undervalued and should be taken between rounds six and eight.

10. Eli Manning, NYG. In 2009, Eli bested his previous career high yards per pass by over a full yard. The trend isn’t all fluke, but the passing yards are slightly bloated. Don’t expect Eli to surpass 4,000 yards again, although he is a 30 TD candidate. He is a decent option at QB1 if you miss out on the elite passers worth taking in round 7 or 8.

11. Jay Cutler, CHI. Despite having a miserable real football season, Cutler posted 27 touchdowns and almost 3,700 passing yards. With a healthy Devin Aromashodu and running a Mike Martz offense, Cutler should improve his efficiency and cut down on his turnovers. This makes him a low-end QB1 with potential, and he is a great option around the eighth round.

12. Matt Ryan, ATL. With his team, himself included, hampered by injuries in ‘09, expect Ryan to return to his rookie form. Even if he does, he is not a very attractive fantasy player, as his chances of surpassing 3,500 yards seem rather slim. Try to avoid him as your only viable QB1 and take him in rounds 8 or 9.

13. Carson Palmer, CIN. Whether you point to the additions of Antonio Bryant, Jermaine Gresham, and Jordan Shipley or to the possible suspension of Cedric Benson, Carson Palmer is destined to improve upon his pedestrian 2009 campaign. He should throw for around 3,500 yards and 25 scores and should be a dependable but unspectacular QB best used as a reserve. Draft him no earlier than round 8.

14. Donovan McNabb, WSH. If Jason Campbell was able to throw for over 3,600 yards behind a terrible offensive line with iffy targets, Donovan McNabb should be able to surprise a ton of people this season. He isn’t safe to draft as a QB1 given his extensive injury history and age, but McNabb could throw for 4,000 yards and 25 TDs. Give him a hard look as a top notch QB2 beginning in the ninth round.

15. Kevin Kolb, PHI. In 14 games, Donovan McNabb threw for 3,600 yards and 22 TDs with the Eagles last season. Expect Kolb to post similar numbers, but with more INTs as part of the learning curve. Kolb has great potential in the Eagle attack, but is by no means a sure thing. He is being severely overvalued and is not worth more than a 10th rounder.

16. Alex Smith, SF. Extend Alex Smith’s 2009 totals over a full 16 game schedule and he throws for almost 3,800 yards and 28 TDs. Unbelievable. Throw in chemistry with a potential star in Michael Crabtree, a solid run game, and upgrades to the offensive line, and Alex Smith is a breakout candidate. Four years ago was the only time Smith was good enough to hold his job for a full 16 game slate and he failed to surpass even 3,000 yards though. Big risk, but bigger reward. I love his cake schedule and ceiling and trust him with my pick between rounds 11-13 as a nice QB2.

17. Chad Henne, MIA. In ‘09, Henne threw for close to 3,000 yards in only 13 starts. Throw in Brandon Marshall, a full offseason as the starter, and a probable decline in wildcat packages and Henne should easily surpass 3,500 yards in 2010. He is an average QB2 worth a look in round 12 or beyond.

18. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT. Roethlisberger would probably rank 7th or 8th on this list if not for his six game suspension. He threw for over 4,300 yards last season, and he should average 16 to 18 fantasy points per game in standard formats. That being said, he will likely be over drafted and I would let him be somebody else’s problem unless my started had a late bye week. Pick him up in round 12 if he’s there.

19. Vince Young, TEN. Young will throw for less than 200 yards a game and isn’t likely to throw for 20 or more scores. However, he is a good risk-reward pickup due to his running potential. Take a late round flier on him as a risky QB2.

20. Jason Campbell, OAK. Despite changing teams during the offseason, Campbell has similar talent around him and should be able to throw for close to 3,500 yards and 20 scores. He’s a low-end QB2.

21. Matthew Stafford, DET. I just don’t see what other people do in Stafford. His yards per pass should continue to hover around 6.0 and his offensive line hasn’t made significant strides. Expect nothing more than 3,500 yards and 20 TDs.

22. Matt Moore, CAR. I really like Matt Moore as a real football player, but Carolina runs too much for him to make a big fantasy impact. Still, he could throw for over 3,500 yards. Low-end QB2.

23. David Garrard, JAX. Garrard has surpassed 3,500 yards in each season he has started 16 games. He also has never thrown for more than 18 TDs, so you know what you’re getting. A decent QB 2 with no real upside.

24. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA. The Seahawks led the league in pass attempts last season, but Hasselbeck managed barely 3,000 yards through the air. Throw in the extensive injury history and Hasselbeck is barely worthy of a draft pick unless you are in a deep draft.


July 14, 2010 - Posted by | Uncategorized

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